07/09/2026
My assessment of the AfD’s Election Victory in Saxony-Anhalt – Implications for Political Parties, the Federal Government, Friedrich Merz, Germany and Jewish Life
A Political Turning Point
The state election in Saxony-Anhalt on September 6, 2026, represents a major turning point in Germany’s political development. The AfD emerged as the strongest party, receiving around 44 percent of the vote. The CDU fell to approximately 17 percent. As a result, the political balance of power in Saxony-Anhalt has fundamentally changed within a single electoral term.
The scale of the result is particularly striking. Compared with the 2021 state election, the AfD more than doubled its share of the vote, while the CDU lost more than half of its previous support. This makes Saxony-Anhalt one of the clearest signals yet of the AfD’s growing strength in a German state.
However, the election victory does not automatically mean that the AfD will lead the state government. The other parties have generally ruled out cooperation with the AfD. At the same time, the presence of the BSW in the state parliament could make the formation of a government particularly complicated.
Impact on the Political Parties
The AfD
For the AfD, the result is a historic success. For the first time, the party can claim more than 40 percent of the vote in a German state election and therefore demand a decisive role in shaping the political direction of the state.
The result is likely to be interpreted within the party as confirmation of its political strategy, particularly its focus on migration, internal security, economic dissatisfaction and criticism of the established political system.
At the same time, the AfD faces a major challenge: winning an election is not the same as being able to form a government. Without coalition partners or another form of support, the party may remain unable to govern despite being the strongest political force.
The CDU
The result is particularly serious for the CDU. With only around 17 percent of the vote, it has lost roughly 20 percentage points compared with 2021.
The CDU must now decide how to respond to the AfD’s success. Adopting positions closer to those of the AfD could potentially win back some voters in the short term, but it also carries the risk of further blurring the political distinction between the two parties.
Maintaining a clear distance from the AfD, on the other hand, could initially mean losing additional voters to it. The CDU therefore faces a difficult strategic dilemma.
The SPD, Greens and Left Party
The result is also a warning sign for the other democratic parties. The SPD received around 9 percent, the Greens just under 9 percent and the Left Party approximately 8.5 percent.
Although the Greens made gains, they remain far from being able to significantly influence the political direction of the state on their own. The SPD must ask why it has not been able to benefit more from the CDU’s decline despite being part of the federal government.
The Left Party faces a similar problem. It lost support even though the AfD is particularly strong in regions affected by social and economic difficulties. The traditional parties of the political left therefore need to find ways to address social and economic concerns with more convincing and concrete policies.
The BSW
The BSW could play a particularly important role in the formation of the next state government. With around 5.2 percent of the vote, it has entered the state parliament.
This gives the BSW potentially significant influence over coalition negotiations. Cooperation with the AfD, however, would be politically risky and could fundamentally alter the party’s political direction while provoking strong reactions among other parties and parts of its own electorate.
Implications for Friedrich Merz
For Chancellor and CDU leader Friedrich Merz, the result represents one of the most serious political setbacks since the beginning of his chancellorship.
Although this was a state election, it is difficult to separate the result from federal politics. As CDU leader, Merz bears particular responsibility for the party’s political strategy. The CDU’s collapse to around 17 percent, combined with the AfD’s rise to around 44 percent, raises questions about whether the Union’s political strategy is sufficiently convincing to voters.
Merz must now prevent the election from being interpreted primarily as a personal vote of no confidence in his leadership and the federal government.
At the same time, the debate within the CDU about its political direction is likely to intensify. Some members may call for a stronger emphasis on conservative positions, while others may argue that the party needs an even clearer distinction from the AfD.
An immediate leadership change is therefore not necessarily to be expected. Nevertheless, the political pressure on Merz and the federal government is likely to increase significantly.
Impact on the Federal Government
The election result increases pressure on the federal government considerably. The government must demonstrate that it can effectively address issues such as migration, economic insecurity, high living costs, housing shortages and weaknesses in public infrastructure.
The AfD’s success also demonstrates that political dissatisfaction is no longer expressed primarily through the traditional left-wing or liberal parties. A substantial share of protest voters is now being mobilized by the AfD.
This creates a dilemma for the federal government. If it adopts AfD positions, it could further legitimize the party’s political agenda. If it ignores the issues that the AfD emphasizes, it could lose additional voters.
The key challenge will therefore be to offer concrete solutions while maintaining a clear democratic distinction from the AfD.
The election does not automatically mean that the federal government will collapse. In fact, the breakup of the governing coalition could potentially strengthen the AfD even further. For this reason, the governing parties are likely to initially focus on maintaining political stability and keeping the government functional.
Implications for Germany
The AfD’s victory has significance far beyond Saxony-Anhalt. It demonstrates that a right-wing extremist party can now achieve more than 40 percent of the vote in a German state election.
Several developments could therefore be accelerated:
Competition between the CDU and the AfD is likely to become even more intense.
The so-called “firewall” against cooperation with the AfD will face increasing pressure.
Future state elections are likely to be interpreted increasingly as tests of federal government policy.
Businesses and investors may pay closer attention to political stability in eastern Germany.
Migrants and other minorities may feel increasingly exposed to political and social pressure.
At the same time, the result should not be interpreted as evidence that everyone in Saxony-Anhalt shares the same political motivations. The election demonstrates strong support for the AfD, but voters may have very different reasons for choosing the party.
Consequences for Jewish Life
The situation is particularly sensitive for Jewish communities and Jewish life in Germany.
The president of the Central Council of Jews in Germany, Josef Schuster, expressed serious concern about the result. He pointed out that the AfD had come close to being able to govern the state on its own. Holocaust survivors, including Charlotte Knobloch and Eva Umlauf, also expressed fear and dismay over the success of a right-wing extremist party.
For Jewish people, this development has particular historical significance. Because of the crimes committed by N**i Germany, Germany has a special responsibility to protect Jewish life.
When a party whose members and officials have repeatedly been criticized for right-wing extremist and revisionist positions receives such a high level of support, Jewish citizens may feel that the social and political climate around them is changing.
The protection of Jewish institutions, consistent action against antisemitic crimes and a credible culture of remembrance will therefore become particularly important.
Education policy will also play a crucial role. A stronger political influence of the AfD on education and historical remembrance could have long-term consequences for how National Socialism and antisemitism are addressed in German schools and society.
The concerns expressed by Jewish people should not simply be dismissed as a partisan political argument. They point to a fundamental question: How can Germany ensure that Jewish life is not only legally protected but also feels safe, accepted and fully integrated into society?
Conclusion
The AfD’s victory in Saxony-Anhalt is more than an exceptionally strong election result for a single political party. It is a warning signal for Germany’s entire political system.
The AfD has demonstrated that it can become by far the strongest political force in an eastern German state. The CDU is facing a strategic crisis, Friedrich Merz is under considerable political pressure, and the federal government must provide more convincing answers to the dissatisfaction felt by many voters.
For Germany, the central question is how democratic parties will respond to the continued rise of the AfD. Their ability to solve real political problems while simultaneously defending democratic principles, the rule of law and the protection of minorities will be crucial.
For Jewish life, the development is particularly concerning. The reactions of the Central Council of Jews in Germany and Holocaust survivors demonstrate that the AfD’s success is not perceived merely as an ordinary political shift. It also touches on Germany’s historical responsibility and raises the question of how secure and accepted Jewish life will be in Germany in the future.
Saxony-Anhalt could therefore become a political turning point—not only for the state itself, but also for Germany’s broader response to the continued rise of the AfD.
