03/17/2020
Response to the Coronavirus Guidelines:
One of the problems with addressing a pandemic is the social pressure of taking the recommendation for social distancing. It’s awkward and feels like an over-reaction. To quote Jason Warner, “The reason it feels like an overreaction is that most people overweight the currently reported cases and inherently underweight the mathematics of how the virus is spreading.”
Before we give the data on the spreading of the virus, please consider that spreading the virus puts those in a high-risk category at a much greater risk. This is a moral concern. The church must lead with moral responsibility.
The risk of infection is increasing exponentially because the quantity of infected people, most of whom will not show symptoms, is doubling every 3 days. So the longer we don’t adopt the recommendations for social distancing, the greater the chance of you or someone you love becoming infected and then in turn infecting others. Harvard and Massachusetts General Hospital estimate that there are 50x more infections than reported. The implication of this is that the virus is spreading regardless of Texarkana only having one presumptive positive case.
Because of the exponential growth of the virus, in less than one week, the total number of those infected in the United States will quadruple. ON 3/12/20, the US had 1,573 cases. By 3/15/20, there were 3,115 confirmed cases. In 3 days, the infection rate doubles. Exponential math: 2x2x2x2x2x2….
The critical result of this will be the burden on our local hospitals. Yes, the virus kills only a small percentage of those afflicted, but at least 15% of those infected will need urgent hospitalization. In Texarkana, between our 2 hospitals, we have 553 bed to serve roughly 100k people. Even if only 1 in 10 of our local population becomes infected, 15% would need urgent hospitalization. That’s 1500 patients.
In a nutshell, too many patients, not enough beds and a serious shortage of ventilators (the biggest problem.) Our government’s recommendation is to flatten the curve of the infection.
As a church, we are commanded to submit to our governing authority (Romans 13:1). The only time we resist the government is when they command us to resist Jesus. If they do, we will say with Peter, “We must obey God, rather than man.” Acts 4:19. Today, the government issued a 15-day nationwide guideline, which affects churches, namely no gathering of groups of 10 or more.
In light of the above data, the leadership of Rise Church feel it prudent to submit to the government’s recommendation for the 15-day period. We will not meet as a church-wide body for the next 2 weeks. Prayerfully, our next gathering will be Sunday, March 29th.
But home church is not cancelled. By that, I encourage that families make a point of still meeting daily to have devotionals and prayer. For those that have senior family not living with you, please serve them in this season. Make sure their prescriptions are filled or go pick up groceries. If there are people you know of who need assistance, we will make ourselves available to meet those needs.
As pastors, we will still be available on our cell phones. We will continue to check on you. I encourage you to contact us if you need prayer or if you just want to visit.
Conversation will not be cancelled.
Reading will not be cancelled.
Relationships will not be cancelled.
Worship will not be cancelled.
Love will not be cancelled.
Prayer will not be cancelled.
Romans 15:13 – “May the God of Hope fill you with all Joy and peace in believing, so that by the power of the Holy Spirit, you may abound in hope.”
Definition of hope – a confident expectation of good for the future.
