12/29/2023
EXTRA! EXTRA! READ ALL ABOUT IT! 📜
JOE'S 21ST ANNUAL WINTER FORECAST!!! ❄️
JOE’S 21st ANNUAL WINTER FORECAST
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YOUR JEWISH WEATHER AUTHORITY
(Covers Southeast Pennsylvania, Central & Southern New Jersey, Northern & Central Delaware)
- - MAIN FOCUS: PHILADELPHIA AREA - -
First, I give a big thanks to all of you who continue to follow me through Weather E-Mails or over on my page at http://www.facebook.com/JewishWeatherAuthority.
As you know, my weather updates are less frequent these days, but I’m still around. Some of you reached out to me and asked where my Winter Forecast was. Last year was my 20th and that seemed like a good number to end on. But weather is my #1 hobby, and I just couldn't go into the new year without this forecast. So, albeit late, here it is!
Last winter was another bust! 0.3" of snow? I see more flakes falling out of my hair than that! (Note: This is a joke, I do not have dandruff.) As I’m sure you’ve heard, this will be an El Nino winter. What’s El Nino in simple terms? It’s the warming of waters over equatorial areas of the central and east-central Pacific Ocean. Similar winters have ranged anywhere from less than an inch for the winter of 1997-98 to as much as 35.9” for the winter of 1982-83 (although most of that fell in one 22” storm). With global warming and the way things have been going, I would stay on the lower end of things rather than the higher end.
This year, winter officially began on Thursday, December 21st. There was no White Christmas and there will be no accumulating snow for Philly in the last few days of December. It may be quite a while before Philly sees the first accumulating snowfall this winter. A pattern change keeps showing up on long-range models, but it keeps getting delayed. We are currently in the longest snow drought in the city's history. By the end of 2023, it will be over 700 days since we last saw an inch of snow in Philadelphia. That's crazy disappointing!
Expect an up and down temperature trend this season. Continuous weeks of below average temperatures are a thing of the past. There will be more above average days than below average. Will there be shots of cold? Absolutely. We can certainly string together a few below average days in a row, but there will likely be more warmer days in a row. However, if we can get some moisture to meet up with the colder days, we're in business. I do think we'll see more snow than last year...we pretty much have to, right? If we see less than 0.3" this year, I'm retiring from giving weather predictions and taking a trip to Antarctica.
On December 1st, the average high in Philly is 50 and the average low is 34. By December 31st, the average high is 41 and the average low is 27. With only a few days left in the month, that's a big NO for sNOw.
On January 1st, the average high in Philly is 41 and the average low is 26. By January 31st, the average high is still 41 and the average low is still 26. Above average temperatures are expected overall. Shots of cold air will be seen but how will it play out with the moisture? Will it play out just right or will the cold air keep storms to our south? Only time will tell. I predict that Philly will finally break its snow drought later in the month.
On February 1st, the average high in Philly is 41 and the average low is 26. By February 29th (leap year), the average high is 47 and the average low is 30. Above average temperatures expected but also more shots of cold air. Maybe an extended period, hopefully. Would love to see the Polar Vortex break free, set up correctly, and steer storms our way. Could this be the month we see our biggest snowfall of the season?
On March 1st, the average high in Philly is 48 and the average low is 30. By March 31st, winter is over. The average high is 58 and the average low is 39. We should gradually warm our way into spring as we head through the month. Sometimes, we can look to March for one of those season changing storms that dump a lot of snow on the area. More recently, when we have had them, they've produced rain in Philly.
Like all winters, areas north and west of the city have the best shot at seeing a storm produce more white than wet. This year is no exception. Keep your fingers crossed, winter lovers. Especially those of you in Philly that are as sad as I am. I do believe our time will come.
SNOWFALL BREAKDOWN BY REGION
SOUTHERN AREAS & SHORE POINTS
(Atlantic City, Cape May, Wildwood)
6-12"
SOUTH CENTRAL NEW JERSEY
(Williamstown, Turnersville, Sicklerville)
8-14"
PHILADELPHIA AREA
(Philly, Cherry Hill, Wilmington)
10-16"
PHILLY'S N&W SUBURBS
(Lancaster, Pottstown)
16-22"
FAR N&W SUBURBS
(Reading, Allentown)
22-28"
MY OFFICIAL SNOWFALL FORECAST
TOTAL SNOWFALL THIS SEASON
(Philadelphia County)
10-16”
(Average is about 22”)
And there it is my friends!
My much anticipated and long awaited 21st Annual Winter Forecast!
I want to thank you all for your interest in my predictions.
Take Care & Have a Happy New Year!
Your Jewish Weather Authority,
Joe Costin
