02/21/2026
I checked back to see if the snow totals might be adjusted downward. It is just the opposite. ~ Pastor
🚨HVW Preliminary Snowfall Forecast: Sun 2/22 - Mon 2/23
🔎Forecast Summary🔎
⏰Timing
◾6am to 10am: Light snow showers develop
◾10am to 4pm: Periods of scattered snow showers.
◾4pm to 10pm : Snow intensifies, becomes heavy from S to N
◾10pm Sun to 6am Mon: Heavy snow, rates of 1 to 2"+ per hour
◾6am Mon to 12pm Mon: Periods of moderate to heavy snow
◾12pm Mon to 6pm Mon: Snow tapers off west to east
💨Winds & Impacts:
◾Winds gusting 20-40 mph by Sunday eve into Monday
◾Higher gusts across the higher elevations and areas south of I84.
◾Blizzard conditions possible
◾Periods of near white out conditions are possible for much of the region
◾Blowing and drifting snow (2 to 3 feet+) creating dangerous conditions.
📏❄️Snow Accumulations:
◾Extreme Western Catskills: 4" to 8" (🚨low confidence)
◾Western Catskills & Extreme Northern HV: 6" to 12"+
◾Eastern Catskills & Majority of Hudson Valley: 12" to 18"+
⚠️Snow totals subject to change depending on precise storm track
⚠️⚠️Sharp cutoff on western edge, is area of greatest uncertainty
📢Detailed Discussion
An intense storm is expected to develop off the coast of Virginia on Sunday, and the track of that storm is beginning to come into focus. All week the question was between a more easterly track... that would limit significant impacts to the coastline, and a more westerly track... that would bring significant impacts into the Hudson Valley. Over the past 24 hours, we have seen a unanimous trend westward in the data.
As a result, we have increased our snowfall forecast for the Hudson Valley, to 12" to 18"+. What this means, is that if the storm takes the current expected track... the majority of the Hudson Valley will see 12" to 18" of snow. The reason for the '+' is because we are now beginning to track extreme convective signals in the data, that may cause the storm to be more intense than previously modeled. If this is comes to pass, the snowfall totals may exceed what is shown here.
The same can be said for the 6" to 12"+ range. The western edge of this system will see a sharp and dramatic cutoff in snowfall accumulations. Where that western edge sets up is of GREAT concern to our snowfall forecast. The combination of marginal temperatures (near freezing) and potential downslope off the Catskills only increase the uncertainty in these areas. At this time, we feel the edge is in eastern PA, up through western Delaware county. But should the guidance shift eastward again... we could see the lower ends of the forecast. Should the data shift further west... the totals forecasted could be exceeded.
The dynamic nature of this storm could result in wind gusts reaching near 40mph well inland. It will also generate its own cold air, so air temperatures will fall into the mid and upper 20s during the height of the storm. This should keep most areas from being a 'heavy, wet snow'... but with expected snow ratios of 10:1 to 14:1, this would be an "average" semi-packing snow for many. Not the light "fluff" we saw in January, but not backbreaking wet snow either. However, large amounts of 'average' snow can be dangerous to remove... so please factor that in.
📝Additional Storm Notes:
◾Light snow begins early Sunday, current guidance suggests that total snow accumulation by sunset on Sunday is less than 2", with temperatures at or above freezing. Travel conditions during the morning to early afternoon should be only minorly impacted. The worse impacts begin near sunset.
◾Thundersnow possible (due to convective development of low pressure)
◾Snowfall rates in excess of 2" to 3" per hour in mesoscale banding. As storm deepens and intensifies, it will rotate embedded heavier bands of snow outward from the storm, and where those bands persist... snowfall totals may exceed expectations.
In closing... a word of caution...
The track of this storm is not certain at this time. The guidance could trend further east today. If that happens, then we will need to temper expectations and the snowfall forecast would decrease accordingly. However... the tone and tenor of this forecast is due to the rapidly changing situation. The major snowstorm of 12 to 18 inches in January was very well telegraphed. We had nearly a week to prepare. While this storm has been on the radar... the current data is projecting an extreme solution, that most people were not anticipating. Our Preliminary Forecast is conservative based on the current data, and if the current data is correct, some locations will exceed 24" (hence the + built into the forecast). Rather than jump to the current data, we are increasing incrementally out of caution. But we want people to be prepared for what this storm could produce across the Hudson Valley and Catskills, because a storm of this magnitude can be deadly if not prepared. This storm begins early Sunday... likely with minimal impact until after sunset. This could cause some to let their guard down. We want to ensure everyone is prepared for what is possible & currently likely... but to also understand that forecast changes may be necessary with this very complex, very dynamic storm system.
We will be tracking this relentlessly for the next 24+ hours leading into the start of the storm. Please check back for updates. And as Alex always says...
"Keep Calm and Weather On!"
-Bill
