10/09/2026
🇨🇦 CANADA’S POPULATION GROWTH: BIRTHS VS. IMMIGRATION
Canada’s population has grown substantially over the past decade, but the main driver of recent growth has increasingly been international migration, rather than natural population increase.
According to Statistics Canada, the difference between births and deaths has been shrinking as Canada’s population ages and fertility rates decline.
đź“Š WHAT THE NUMBERS SHOW
2015–2019
Canada continued to record natural population growth, with births exceeding deaths. International migration was already a major contributor to overall population growth.
2022–2024
Population growth accelerated dramatically, with Canada adding more than 1 million people per year. International migration was the dominant contributor.
2025
Population growth slowed sharply as the number of non-permanent residents began declining following federal policy changes.
In the first quarter of 2025, Canada recorded 5,628 more deaths than births, meaning natural increase was negative. International migration accounted for all population growth during that quarter.
🎯 THE 100-MILLION QUESTION
Canada has been associated with long-term population-growth proposals targeting 100 million people by 2100.
If Canada were to reach a population of 100 million, immigration would have to play a major role, particularly given Canada’s declining fertility rate, aging population and periods when deaths exceed births.
That means reaching such a population would require sustained population growth over many decades — with immigration making up a significant share of that growth.
🔎 THE BIG PICTURE
Births alone are not currently producing enough natural population growth to drive Canada toward a 100-million population.
The demographic equation increasingly depends on:
• Immigration
• Temporary residents
• Births
• Deaths
• Canada’s fertility rate
Bottom line: If Canada wants to reach a population of 100 million, immigration would likely be one of the central mechanisms needed to achieve that target, especially while natural population growth remains weak or negative.
Source: Statistics Canada, Demographic Estimates Program.
